This season, the Atlantic Coast Conference adds a couple of teams that are a short drive from the Pacific coast (and one from Texas). But that’s college football in 2024.
Stanford, Cal, and SMU will all compete in the ACC this year, and SMU has a chance to make some noise in Year 1. Florida State still reigns supreme but is followed closely by Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and Louisville. My model sees a little bit of distance between Florida State and the rest of the conference compared to the betting markets, but there are plenty of teams that are going to find themselves in the mix as ACC contenders.
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So let’s talk about the futures market. For future betting, I take my college football projection model — which takes play-by-play data and creates a projection for each team — and simulate the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team is expected to win and how many times they win their conference and make the College Football Playoff.
My playoff algorithm is based on 10 years of the four-team playoff. Thanks to conference realignment and the new 12-team playoff structure, this year could have more variance than years past. It’s hard to know how much this will disrupt projections, but my algorithm takes into account a level of randomness because of this, and, well, these are humans making selections. They’re not guaranteed to see things the way that my model sees them.
ACC projections
XWINS is the average number of wins a team got through the simulations. CONF is the chance a team is projected to win its conference.
| Team | xwins | conf |
|---|---|---|
Florida State | 9.1 | 32.2% |
Clemson | 8.5 | 20.2% |
Virginia Tech | 8.9 | 11.1% |
Miami | 8.5 | 10.9% |
Louisville | 7.8 | 8.6% |
SMU | 8.4 | 7% |
NC State | 8.2 | 6.2% |
North Carolina | 7.5 | 2% |
California | 6.3 | 0.7% |
Syracuse | 6.5 | 0.3% |
Georgia Tech | 5.2 | 0.3% |
Pittsburgh | 5.6 | 0.1% |
Virginia | 5.2 | 0.1% |
Boston College | 4.9 | 0.1% |
Wake Forest | 5.3 | 0.1% |
Duke | 5.5 | 0.1% |
Stanford | 4.2 | 0.0% |
Best bets
Virginia Tech over 8.5 wins (+124)
Look at any returning production or starters chart, and you’ll find Virginia Tech firmly in the top 10. The Hokies will be experienced, and combining that with a favorable schedule makes this an over play. They avoid Florida State, Louisville, SMU and NC State. They do have to travel to Miami, which will be a tough game, but circle their November 9 matchup with Clemson as a game with major playoff implications. My model ranks their defense as the stronger unit, but quarterback Kyron Drones could be a dark-horse Heisman candidate if he takes the next step. I think this team has about the same chance to win 10 games as it does to win eight.
Miami under 9.5 wins (-170) (to win 0.5 units)
This Miami team has a ton of talent and should find themselves at the top of the ACC race come season’s end. But Mario Cristobal has shown time and time again that he’s going to lose games that he shouldn’t. They’re projected to play in three coin flips (at Florida, at Louisville and vs. Florida State), and I just can’t trust them to win two of those games and get through the rest of the schedule unscathed. I’m reducing risk here as the price is a bit steep for how much talent is on this team, which could overcome the pause I have with Cristobal on the sideline.
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Syracuse under 7.5 wins (-142)
I think the Fran Brown hire will end up paying dividends for Syracuse in the long run, but I’m not sure it’s going to happen right away in Year 1. They manage to avoid Florida State, Clemson, Louisville and SMU, so that is a worry, but getting to eight wins is something my model thinks is unlikely. In fact, my model has six games that are lined under a touchdown and a few others that are just outside of the touchdown range. Despite adding former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, that’s too many coin-flips for me to think this team can get to this number. I think this should be priced at 6.5/7.
Stanford over 3.5 wins (-160) (to win 0.5 units)
Similarly to Virginia Tech, Stanford returns a ton from last year’s team, and I’m a fan of coach Troy Taylor and his success from Sacramento State. They have a pretty tough schedule considering their draw in the ACC, but I think they’re live in Week 1 against TCU. This isn’t a big edge by any means, and this might be more of a vibes play, but I think my model struggles to grasp how quickly these coaches who had success at the FCS level can turn a program around.
Florida State to win ACC (+300)
(Photo: Don Juan Moore / Getty Images)
Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419
